With the Toncoin bulls aiming for a recovery rally, the growing supply hints at a potential trap. So, should you consider buying the recent dip in TON price amid breakout chances?
As Bitcoin maintains its stand above 102,000 level, the altcoins are on a slippery slope. With the total crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin BTC $84 997 24h volatility: 0.9% Market cap: $1.69 T Vol. 24h: $19.52 B and Ethereum ETH $1 588 24h volatility: 0.7% Market cap: $191.68 B Vol. 24h: $10.44 B standing strong at $1 trillion, Toncoin TON $2.94 24h volatility: 1.7% Market cap: $7.38 B Vol. 24h: $143.05 M is preparing for a bounce-back rally.
Despite the 2.15% decline over the past 24 hours, the intraday recovery hints at a potential rally. Currently, Toncoin (TON) holds a market value of $4.84 with a total valuation of $12 billion.
Amid the reversal chances, will the 14th biggest cryptocurrency in the market register a new swing high? Let’s find out.
Toncoin (TON) Price Analysis Targets $6.73 with Wedge Breakout Rally
In the 4-hour chart, the Toncoin price action reveals a local resistance trendline dominating the current landscape. With the converging support trendline, Toncoin reveals a falling wedge pattern at play.
Despite the strong bearish influence, the crucial support zone at $4.77 holds the Toncoin prices. With a second reversal from this support zone over the past 48 hours, Toncoin hints at a potential double-bottom reversal.
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Toncoin price chart
Supporting the bullish chances, the 4-hour RSI line reveals a positive divergence between the two bottoms. With the neckline close to the 23.6% Fibonacci level near the $5 mark, Toncoin hints at a potential breakout rally.
As the altcoin stands on the verge of giving two pattern breakouts, i.e., double bottom and falling wedge, the upside potential is massive. Using the Fibonacci levels, the upside breakout rally could reach the 78.6% Fibonacci level at $5.72.
However, the projected price trend could reach the 1.618% Fibonacci level at $6.73.
Analysts Sirens Incoming Supply Wave Over Exchanges
Despite the extremely positive bullish price action, the on-chain data reveals a massive incoming supply wave. In a recent X-post by Martinez Ali, an independent technical analyst, reveals a large influx of Toncoin over exchanges.
Based on the data from the Santiment feed, 240,000 Toncoin have been transferred to exchanges over the past week. With the massive influx of supply, the selling pressure could likely drop the Toncoin prices.
Over 240,000 #Toncoin $TON have been transferred to exchanges in the past week, potentially signaling increased selling pressure as shown by on-chain data from @santimentfeed! pic.twitter.com/FF9BBEMJzL
— Ali (@ali_charts) January 29, 2025
Using the price chart, a downfall under the $4.77 support zone could witness a drop to $4.60 or to the $4.00 psychological mark.
Will Toncoin Absorb the Incoming Supply Wave?
As the rising supply clashes directly with the bullish price action analysis, another on-chain data helps clear the growing uncertainty. Based on the in-and-out-of-the-money-around-price indicator into the block, Toncoin reveals strong resistance ahead.
The upcoming supply zone extends from $4.87 to $5.02, holding 665.47 million TON tokens. However, the at-the-money zone and the recent demand zone hold nearly 17 million TON tokens between $4.72 and $4.87.
Hence, with a solid support zone, Toncoin shows increased potential for continuing the bullish trend.
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