By
Svetlana Soroka
June 29th, 2024
The GSR report predicts a 9x rally in Solana price if the spot ETF debuts saying that Solana’s blockchain network utility improves the odds of SOL’s strong outperformance over Bitcoin.
On Thursday, cryptocurrency market maker GSR published a report stating that the odds of approval of spot Solana ETF under Donald Trump’s Presidency could improve manifold times. As a result, it expects a strong rally coming in Solana if Trump resumes the office later this year. Interestingly, it expects Solana to give better returns than Bitcoin in the case of spot ETF debut.
The GSR report draws parallel to the Bitcoin price performance following the launch of spot Bitcoin ETF earlier this year in the US. Notably, Bitcoin’s price increased by 2.3 times, from $27,000 in October 2023—approximately three months before SEC approval—to around $63,000 this month. GSR primarily attributes this surge to ETF-related developments. Thus GSR highlights three scenarios for Solana’s potential price increase:
- A bear case with a 1.4x price jump,
- A base case with a 3.4x increase, and
- A “blue sky” scenario predicting an 8.9x rise based on optimistic inflow estimates.
But GSR believes that Solana’s price surge could be even more significant than Bitcoin considering the greater utility of the Solana blockchain across a wide range of applications in DeFi and other use cases built atop the network.
“Unlike BTC, SOL is actively used for staking and within decentralized applications and as [such] the relationship between relative flows and relative size may not be linear,” GSR wrote.
GSR Ranks Solana on ‘ETF Possibility Score’
Considering two factors of “decentralization” and “potential demand”, Solana has introduced an “ETF Possibility Score” highlighting that Solana satisfies both criteria and ranks second to Ethereum. “Solana is next, should additional spot digital asset ETFs be permitted in the US,” the report ultimately concludes.
We are already seeing some early developments in the push for spot Solana ETF. On Thursday, asset management firm VanEck filed an S-1 registration form with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a spot Solana ETF. This was enough to push the Solana price surge into double digits moving all the way to $150.
As per GSR, the US presidential election might pave the way for more crypto ETFs like SOL. If Trump secures another presidency, he could disrupt the traditional process of launching crypto ETFs, typically involving years and the introduction of federally regulated futures contracts, a step Solana currently lacks.
BREAKING: The odds of Donald Trump winning the 2024 Presidential Election surge to a new high of 63%.
Since the debate started, odds of Trump winning the election have surged by over 10%.
Odds of President Biden winning a second term have fallen from 48% to 37%.
Markets… pic.twitter.com/Y08GWO8oZu
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 28, 2024
As per a recent survey, the odds of Donald Trump winning the upcoming 2024 US Presidential Elections have surged to 63%. This indicates good times for the crypto market ahead.