Polymarket predictions suggest Trudeau’s potential resignation as approval declines, with media reports hinting at an earlier departure before January 10.
Bettors on Polymarket are predicting that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will resign by the end of this week. However, reports from local media suggest that his departure might occur sooner.
Based on the odds on the decentralized betting platform, Trudeau has an estimated 82% likelihood of leaving office by Friday, January 10. Another prediction gives him a 72% chance of doing so by Wednesday, January 8, while the chances of him stepping down today, January 6, stand at 26%.
Trudeau Faces Declining Approval Amid Conservative Surge
The Toronto Star and The Globe and Mail have released articles suggesting Trudeau could leave office between January 6 and January 8. The Globe and Mail revealed that while the exact date of his exit remains unknown, it would likely come before the national caucus meeting on Wednesday. However, the majority of bettors on Polymarket lean toward January 10.
Trudeau’s possible resignation aligns with declining approval for both him and his party, while the Conservatives are projected to win a parliamentary majority. Furthermore, this would also leave his party without a permanent leader, as polls indicate the Liberals are on track for a significant loss to the opposition Conservatives.
Trudeau Stays Focused Amid Criticism and Resignation Rumors
The current Canadian Prime Minister has faced persistent criticism. He was recently referred to as the Governor of the “Great State of Canada” by US President Donald Trump. Trump stated on his Truth account:
“I look forward to seeing the Governor again soon so that we may continue our in depth talks on Tariffs and Trade, the results of which will be truly spectacular for all!”
Despite the mockery and resignation rumors, Trudeau has remained focused. He posted on his X page yesterday that nearly a million Canadian families experienced reduced child care fees, saving parents thousands through the national child care program, and that efforts to bring costs down will continue this year.
“A big win from 2024: Nearly a million Canadian families saw their child care fees come down. Parents saved thousands of dollars, thanks to our national child care program. In 2025, we’re going to keep bringing those costs down. Let’s go.” Trudeau noted.
The prime minister also announced in December that for the next two months, certain items in Canada, including prepared foods, snacks, and restaurant meals, will be exempt from taxes, providing Canadians with a temporary tax break.
Meanwhile, Polymarket gained significant attention in political forecasting last year due to high-profile contracts linked to the US General Elections. This contributed to the platform’s growth in active users and volume, generating more than $9 billion in trading volume across multiple contracts. Its growth drew the attention of the FBI and led to a DOJ inquiry into potential US user involvement, specifically focusing on Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan.
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