Bitcoin recently saw a major unstaking event, long-term holders’ movement, and looming Bitcoin options expirations, all contributing to potential price volatility.
The Bitcoin staking ecosystem saw a major shift following the recent airdrop by the Babylon protocol. Within 24 hours of Babylon distributing 600 million BABY tokens, 256 BTC, worth over $21 million, was unstaked from the platform.
in the past 24 hours, 256 BTC has been unstaked from Babylon
these unstaking transactions paid a total of 1.35 BTC in fees and consumed 1.318 MvB of blockspace pic.twitter.com/UVl82fEJmn
— mononaut (@mononautical) April 4, 2025
Data from DeFiLlama shows that Babylon’s total value locked (TVL) currently sits at $4.29 billion. This accounts for around 80% of the entire Bitcoin ecosystem’s TVL, which stands at $5.34 billion.
Meanwhile, on-chain data suggests that long-term Bitcoin holders moved over 1,058 BTC (roughly $90 million) on April 3.
Long-term holders moved over 1,058 #Bitcoin $BTC yesterday! Signs of profit-taking as older coins return to the market. pic.twitter.com/WdbuGVITXa
— Ali (@ali_charts) April 4, 2025
Such movements often suggest that older coins are being reintroduced to the market, which could lead to possible profit-taking and increased selling pressure.
$2.18 billion worth of Bitcoin options contracts are set to expire on April 4, , which could inject further price instability. The maximum pain point of $84,000 suggests that most traders would see their positions lose value unless Bitcoin moves toward that level.
The largest cryptocurrency is currently trading at $83,800, showing no gains or losses in the past 24 hours.
BTC Price Outlook
On the daily BTC price chart, the RSI sits around 46, indicating that Bitcoin is neither in overbought nor oversold territory. This leaves room for both upward and downward movement for the cryptocurrency.
Source: TradingView
The price is currently near the middle Bollinger band, with resistance near $88,100 (upper band) and support around $80,900 (lower band). If BTC breaks above the upper band, it could signal the beginning of a bullish trend.
On the other hand, a drop below the lower Bollinger band could mean further downside pressure. The next key support levels lie at $79,800 and $75,000.
Popular crypto analyst Ali Martinez believes that for Bitcoin to resume its bull run, it must reclaim the short-term holder’s realized price of $90,570.
The first signal that #Bitcoin $BTC is ready to resume its bull run is reclaiming the short-term holder realized price at $90,570! pic.twitter.com/nkdsG8AcGX
— Ali (@ali_charts) April 4, 2025
Analysts Optimistic
Recent tariffs imposed by the US president Donald Trump have caused disruptions in the crypto market. According to data by Alternative, the Fear & Greed Index stands at 28, reflecting “fear” among investors.
This has fueled speculation that Bitcoin may not see another major peak in this cycle. Amid this, some analysts, including BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, believe that such economic shifts will ultimately benefit Bitcoin.
Javon Marks recently argued that Bitcoin’s current technical patterns confirm bullish divergences. He suggests that the cryptocurrency is still on track for a rally back to all-time highs–potentially a 28-33% increase from current levels.
Through numerical data and pattern-ology, Bitcoin has 100% confirmed multiple bullish divergences suggesting a return to All Time Highs!
Right now that is a roughly +28% to +33% movement.
We’ll stick with trusting the numbers/data and not the fear of others…$BTC
— JAVON⚡️MARKS (@JavonTM1) April 3, 2025