The report emphasizes that Bitcoin’s price is set to climb to new all-time highs either way, driven by several catalysts.
Bitcoin BTC $85 886 24h volatility: 1.6% Market cap: $1.71 T Vol. 24h: $28.45 B is poised for a significant price surge by the end of 2024, regardless of the US election outcome, according to a report by Standard Chartered. The report, released as the investment bank resumed coverage of the crypto sector, highlights that Bitcoin could hit a high of $125,000 if Donald Trump wins the presidential race or $75,000 should Kamala Harris triumph.
Election Outcome Could Impact Timing, Not Direction
The bank’s analysis suggests that while the US election outcome is important, its effect on Bitcoin’s price trajectory might be overstated. The report emphasizes that Bitcoin’s price is set to climb to new all-time highs either way, driven by several catalysts. Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, notes that regulatory progress, particularly concerning the relaxation of stringent banking regulations on digital assets, will continue regardless of who takes office in 2025.
However, the pace of this progress is expected to vary. Under a Trump presidency, regulatory reforms, like repealing the strict SAB 121 accounting rules on banks’ digital assets holdings, could accelerate. In contrast, the report predicts a slower path toward regulatory clarity under a Harris presidency, which may initially cause some market sell-off before investors re-enter, anticipating long-term positive changes.
Positive Catalysts Beyond Politics
In addition to regulatory reforms, other factors are contributing to Bitcoin’s optimistic outlook. The report identifies a re-steepening of the US Treasury curve as building positive momentum for Bitcoin’s price. Standard Chartered remains bullish, pointing out that both institutional and retail investors continue to show interest in Bitcoin, with some using price dips as an entry point into the market.
Despite these price projections, Kendrick warns that the market could see some volatility, especially if Harris wins, with Bitcoin potentially facing an initial sell-off. However, this dip is expected to be temporary, as the long-term drivers, including regulatory reforms and increasing institutional adoption, remain intact.
Market Sentiment and Predictive Markets
Market sentiment around the election and Bitcoin’s future price has also been reflected in platforms like Polymarket, where Harris currently holds a slim lead in prediction markets over Trump. This follows the latest US presidential debate, which bolstered her odds of victory. Despite neither candidate mentioning crypto during the debate, both have made their positions on the digital asset space known, with Trump maintaining a more pro-Bitcoin stance.
With the election less than two months away, both the political and crypto communities are closely watching how events unfold. Standard Chartered’s forecast has sparked discussions about how regulatory developments and broader market trends will shape the future of Bitcoin. The crypto world, while optimistic, remains cautious about potential short-term volatility depending on the election outcome.
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