The BTC/USD pair has reclaimed the short-term realized price which suggests that Bitcoin could rally further from here aiming $80,000 and beyond.
After rallying all the way to $65,500 earlier this week, Bitcoin price has seen some partial retracement and is currently trading around $64,500 levels. On-chain data analytics platform CryptoQuant noted that BTC price has tested the short-term holder (STH) realized price.
Bitcoin STH activity is a crucial indicator during the bull markets, as the aggregate cost basis of this cohort forms long-term price support. ever since the Bitcoin bull run began last year in early 2023, the BTC/USD pair dipped under the short-term realized price only for a very short period of time. CryptoQuant notes that another such dip is now coming to an end. CryptoQuant contributor J. A. Maartunn wrote:
“Recently, the Bitcoin price has reclaimed the STH Realized Price. This is a positive sign because short-term holders often add to their positions when Bitcoin returns to their average cost basis, creating a support level.”
Maartunn also observed that “since 2023, Bitcoin has twice reclaimed the short-term holder Realized Price, each time leading to gains of at least 30%”. thus, if Bitcoin price rallies another 30% from the current level, it could hit another all-time high shooting past $80,000.
Furthermore, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode also reported that “over the past 30 days, the Short-Term Holder (STH) cohort has seen a significant drop in profitability, with over 66% of their supply now in unrealized loss”.
Bitcoin NVT Ratio at 2.5-Year Low
Crypto Analyst Michael van de Poppe has highlighted the importance of the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio for Bitcoin, noting that it has reached its lowest, negative level in the past 2.5 years. This current dip is worse than during the collapse of Luna, the correction last summer, or even after Bitcoin’s listing. Van de Poppe suggests that the correction period is over and advises investors to prepare for potential market movements.
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Photo: CryptoQuant
In the last two weeks, BTC price has made substantial gains recovering more than 20% from the lows of $53,500. One of the major catalysts has been pro-crypto US presidential candidate Donald Trump surviving a major assassination attack last weekend. This has increased Trump’s odds of winning at the upcoming election which is celebrated by the crypto industry.
Additionally, Bitcoin ETFs have recorded massive inflows over the past two weeks compensating for the major FUD around Mt. Gox creditor repayments.
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