As the ETFs acquire more than $600 billion worth of Bitcoin, the bullish speculations are driving the BTC price trend. Will this hopium rally result in a new ATH for Bitcoin?
With the total crypto market valuation crossing $3.5 trillion after a 2.42% intraday surge, Bitcoin BTC $87 741 24h volatility: 3.9% Market cap: $1.74 T Vol. 24h: $28.08 B has broken above the $102,000 mark with an intraday gain of 2.13%. The bullish trend in Bitcoin is gaining momentum.
Will this rising rally create a new all-time high before Donald Trump’s swearing-in as the new US President?
Bitcoin Analysis Reveals Channel Breakout
In the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin’s price action reveals a bullish breakout of a falling channel pattern. BTC price has increased by 15% over the past four days, surging from $89,164 to its current market price of $102,063.
As the bullish trend strengthens, the golden crossover between the 50 and 200 EMA lines signals a buying opportunity. Additionally, the 4-hour RSI line has moved into the overbought boundary zone, reinforcing the bullish sentiment.
The BTC price action also projects a rounding bottom reversal with a neckline at $102,514. Breaking through this level will likely challenge the previous swing high near the $108,000 mark. Using Fibonacci levels, the upside price target for Bitcoin is $111,573, corresponding to the 1.272 Fibonacci level.
On the downside, the crucial support now lies at $100,874. The breakout rally from the falling channel pattern hints at a rounding bottom reversal, making the underlying Bitcoin landscape extremely bullish. As a result, the probability of new all-time highs is higher than ever.
Institutional Support Drives Bitcoin Momentum
As Bitcoin’s price continues to grow, institutional support has returned strongly. The daily net inflow of US-bought Bitcoin ETFs on January 16 recorded $626.15 million.
BlackRock’s IBIT ETF led the buying spree, registering an inflow of $527.87 million. ARK and 21Shares followed as the second-largest buyer with a combined inflow of $115.44 million.
While most ETFs showed positive or neutral flows, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust recorded an outflow of $69.97 million. The two consecutive green days for Bitcoin ETFs have propelled inflows to nearly $1.4 billion, indicating a smooth bullish trajectory.
On-Chain Metrics Signal Optimism
In a recent X post, crypto analyst Ali Martinez highlighted the changing dynamics in Bitcoin’s spot market. Long-term holders are turning greedy as Bitcoin crosses the $100,000 mark.
This is evident from the long-term holder NUPL indicator reaching the euphoric stage. However, Martinez also cautioned about potential corrections in Bitcoin due to market volatility.
The $97,000 level acting as a crucial support according to the UTXO realized price distribution indicator. As long as this level holds, the broader bull run remains intact, despite potential short-term corrections.
Derivatives Market Reflects Bullish Speculation
The broader market anticipates a continuation of Bitcoin’s bullish trend. A 5.82% increase in Bitcoin open interest, reaching $65.93 billion, highlights rising speculation. Additionally, options volume surged by 10.60% to reach $4 billion.
The long-to-short ratio over the past 24 hours has reached 1.035, reflecting a greater number of bullish positions. However, Binance’s top trader accounts show a long-to-short ratio of less than 1, suggesting fewer accounts holding bullish positions.
When considering position size, the ratio jumps to 1.7025, demonstrating bullish dominance. The funding rate has spiked to 0.0117, showing traders’ confidence in holding bullish positions. Thus, derivatives data underscores high optimism among traders, supporting the broader bullish narrative for Bitcoin.
In a nutshell, Bitcoin’s bullish momentum and strong institutional support signal potential new highs, with $111,573 as the next target.
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